Stoa Policy Debate: Taiwan Relations Act (AFF)

First a little background. Starting in the 1920s, a Communist rebel movement began developing in the countryside of China. It battled the main governing force of the Nationalists into the 1930s, when Japan invaded. They called an uneasy truce, then picked up their civil war again after World War 2 ended with the Japanese defeat in 1945.
The Communists won the civil war in 1949 and the defeated Nationalists fled to the island of Formosa, better known today as Taiwan. Both the Communist government on the mainland in Beijing (the “People’s Republic of China” PRC) and the Nationalist government in exile in Taiwan (the “Republic of China”) claimed to be the one true legitimate government of China. Pres. Nixon began diplomatic overtures to normalize US relations with Beijing, and Pres. Carter formally concluded the process by recognizing the mainland government as the government of China, instead of Taiwan.
Congress, worried that we would be abandoning a Cold War anti-communist ally, enacted the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979. The TRA guarantees the U.S. will sell Taiwan weapons and implies, without coming out and saying it, that the U.S. will protect Taiwan in a conflict. The goal was to prevent the mainland from forcibly absorbing or invading Taiwan to bring the island into its domain. However, today that commitment risks drawing the U.S. into war with the PRC —something that would be catastrophic for both countries and the world. This plan has the US drop the TRA.
There are three possible mutually exclusive things that could happen, all of which still support an AFF ballot. One, China might do nothing and continue hoping and trying to influence Taiwan to reunify peacefully. Two, China might invade but Taiwan’s defenses are strong enough on their own to scare them off. Three, China might invade and win because Taiwan is indefensible due to the overwhelming numbers and power of mainland China’s military. In case #1 or #2, the US military commitment isn’t needed. In case #3, if the US intervenes, it would probably end in nuclear war, or else the loss of Taiwan PLUS the loss of a lot of US military force for no benefit, if Taiwan is indefensible. China absorbing Taiwan without a nuclear war would be far better than them absorbing after a nuclear war.